US added 119K jobs in September, but unemployment rises to 4.4%
A long-awaited report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), delayed by a record 44-day government shutdown, revealed that the US labor market demonstrated unexpected resilience in September. Nonfarm payrolls surged by 119,000, significantly exceeding the Dow Jones consensus forecast of 50,000, and recovering from a downwardly revised 4,000 jobs lost in August
Sector-Specific Employment Trends
Job gains in September were primarily driven by steady sectors:
Health Care: Led growth, adding 43,000 jobs.
Bars and Restaurants: Contributed 37,000.
Social Assistance: Increased by 14,000.
However, some sectors reported notable declines:
Transportation and Warehousing: Lost 25,000 jobs.
Professional and Business Services: Declined by 20,000, fueled by a significant drop in temporary help.
Market and Federal Reserve Implications
The backward-looking nature of the September data—a snapshot from two months prior—nonetheless spurred market movement:
Stocks: Equities added to gains, interpreting the stronger payrolls as evidence the economy remains on a “firm footing.”
Bonds and the Fed: Treasury yields were mostly lower. The combined picture of stronger payrolls, rising unemployment, and a slowdown in monthly wage growth (+0.2% vs. 0.3% forecast) kept the possibility of a December Fed rate cut “just about alive,” according to analysts. Federal Reserve officials, who had cut rates in September and October, noted the difficulty of setting policy without reliable data, showing an inclination to forgo further cuts.
End of the Data Drought
This report officially ends the data gap caused by the government shutdown. To compensate, the BLS announced an accelerated schedule: jobs data for October and November will be released simultaneously on December 16th, providing Fed policymakers with critical information before their final meeting of the year.
