NYC Mayoral Race Tightens: Cuomo Closing the Gap
New York City’s mayoral race is tightening, with former Governor Andrew Cuomo cutting front-runner Zohran Mamdani’s lead in half compared to a month ago, according to a new poll.
Mamdani, the Democratic nominee, now leads independent candidate Cuomo 44% to 34% among likely New York City voters, according to a Suffolk University survey released Monday.
The new margin is much narrower than the 20-point lead the democratic socialist Mamdani held in Suffolk’s September poll. Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa remains in third place with 11% support, a share that could ultimately prevent Cuomo from overtaking Mamdani despite his recent gains, pollsters said.
“There is one person in New York City whose voters could have an outsized impact on the outcome,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. “That person isn’t Mayor Eric Adams, Representative Hakeem Jeffries, Senator Chuck Schumer, or any New York billionaire. It’s Republican Curtis Sliwa, whose voters hold the 11% blocking Cuomo from winning the race.”
This was Suffolk’s first poll since Mayor Eric Adams abandoned his long-shot re-election campaign and endorsed Cuomo. It is also the second poll to show the former governor closing the gap with Mamdani since Adams’s withdrawal.
Cuomo’s comeback, however, comes with caveats. The survey—conducted by phone among 500 likely general-election voters from Thursday through Sunday—found that a substantial portion of Cuomo’s support stems from opposition to Mamdani. Asked whether their vote was more about being for Cuomo or against Mamdani, his backers split evenly at 40%–40%, the poll showed.
By contrast, 79% of Mamdani’s supporters said they were voting for the Queens assemblyman, compared with only 7% who were doing so against Cuomo.
Cuomo has also made major gains among Hispanic voters, now running roughly even after trailing Mamdani by 30 points in September. He leads among independents by 10 points, a dramatic reversal from a month ago when he trailed by 18.
Overall, 7% of voters remain undecided, and the four other candidates on the ballot together attract 2% support.
Sliwa continues to be a pivotal factor in the race. He and Cuomo are splitting the anti-Mamdani vote, making it harder to unseat the left-wing Democrat. The poll found that many of Sliwa’s backers would support Cuomo if Sliwa were not running. Cuomo is the second choice of 32% of voters, compared with 3% for Mamdani.
Other names on the ballot include Adams (who has endorsed Cuomo), Conservative Party nominee Irene Estrada, and independents Joseph Hernandez and Jim Walden.
Monday marks the third of nine days of early voting ahead of the November 4 election.
